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NSW abandons Covid Zero

Aug 17, 2021 • 16m 45s

Unlike the rest of the country, NSW appears to be abandoning its intention of eliminating the virus and reaching zero cases of community transmission. Today, Mike Seccombe on the NSW strategy to deal with the virus and what it might mean for the rest of the nation.

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NSW abandons Covid Zero

525 • Aug 17, 2021

NSW abandons Covid Zero

[Theme Music Starts]

RUBY:

From Schwartz Media, I’m Ruby Jones, This is 7am.

New South Wales is currently experiencing its worst outbreak of Covid-19 since the start of the pandemic.

With case numbers continuing to rise, the government has slowly acknowledged it’s losing control.

Unlike the rest of the country, it now appears that New South Wales is abandoning its intention of eliminating the virus and reaching zero cases of community transmission, instead relying more heavily on vaccinations.

Today, National Correspondent for The Saturday Paper, Mike Seccombe, on the New South Wales strategy to deal with the virus and what it might mean for the rest of the nation.

It’s Tuesday, August 17.

[Theme Music Ends]

RUBY:

Mike, at the beginning of the pandemic, it wasn't really clear what the plan was going to be to deal with Covid-19; whether we were trying to suppress the virus or if we were trying to eliminate it entirely from Australia. So where did we end up landing on that question?

MIKE:

Well, you're quite right.

In 2020, it was a little unclear. I mean, in part because we didn't have viable vaccines for a long time. And so there were divergent views across the states and the territories and federally as to whether we should be looking to eliminate the virus entirely, or just suppress it.

And some argued that going for elimination would kill the economy. Others were arguing that elimination was the only option if we wanted to save lives and ensure that our hospitals weren't overrun. So, you know, it took a while to get to a reasonably uniform position,

Archival Tape -- Scott Morrison:

“Good afternoon everyone. Another important and successful meeting of the national cabinet...”

MIKE:

But a consensus did emerge, sort of mid 2020

Archival Tape -- Scott Morrison:

“...agreed on today was an affirmation of the suppression strategy that we've been working to nationally now for many, many months from the outset..”

MIKE:

When the Prime Minister clearly stated that the goal was zero community transmission.

Archival Tape -- Scott Morrison:

“The goal of that is obviously and has always been no community transmission.”

MIKE:

And we would use an “aggressive suppression” strategy.

Archival Tape -- Scott Morrison:

“No community transmission with the vast majority of states and territories have been at now, effectively for some time, and that's certainly where we want to get back to in Victoria, and New South Wales,”

MIKE:

So in many ways, it appeared that it was elimination by another name. And we have at various periods effectively achieved elimination.

Archival Tape -- Unidentified Reporter #1:

“New South Wales is now on the eve of a Covid milestone set to reach 50 days with no community transmission.”

Archival Tape -- Unidentified Reporter #2:

“Victoria is tonight again Covid free after 25 days of no new infections we can all breathe a little easier.”

MIKE:

In April this year, the country recorded a few days where there were zero locally transmitted cases in every state and territory.

Archival Tape -- Unidentified Commentator #1:

“Another day of zero cases of community transmission Australia wide.”

MIKE:

There have been sporadic outbreaks in various states and territories, notably Victoria. But a lot of the country has been virus free for most of the time.

But then came the Delta outbreak.

Delta has just shifted the game entirely, it’s upended that entire calculus about elimination versus suppression.

RUBY:

So let's talk about that, because the Delta variant, it's really made everyone, I think, worldwide, reassess their approach to the virus. It's significantly more difficult to contain the spread of this particular variant. And I mean, we're seeing that in New South Wales at the moment.

MIKE:

Yeah, well, that's right. I mean, Delta is far more contagious. It's contagious earlier. And the suggestion is that, you know, people carry higher viral loads and even some people who are vaccinated, even if they are personally protected, may still spread it. So this has big implications for things like contact tracing. It makes it much harder.

And so what we're seeing in New South Wales really speaks to all these complications. In previous outbreaks, the New South Wales government was able to use highly targeted lockdowns, and it had a very good contact tracing team, and managed to stop the spread of the virus. But clearly, that is no longer the case.

The government didn't lockdown early enough and we've seen the consequence, which is hundreds of new cases every day. The outbreak, which began in Sydney's eastern suburbs, has spread out into the west, then to the regions. And now it appears in two other states and territories.

We've got almost 6,000 active cases at the time I speak, hundreds more every day, and on average, a death every second day over the course of the outbreak. And, of course, more deaths on a daily basis as the numbers grow. So I think the overwhelming nature of this variant is why we've recently seen the Berejikilian government say a few things that suggest they are shifting the goalposts about what the state is trying to achieve here.

RUBY:

Tell me about that, Mike. What is it that Gladys Berejiklian has said, and what appears to be this shift?

Archival Tape -- Gladys Berejiklian:

“Good morning, everybody”

MIKE:

Essentially, it was to say that New South Wales might need to learn to live with the virus...

Archival Tape -- Gladys Berejiklian:

“Lockdown plus some level of easing of restrictions is possible, once we get to 50% or 60% rates of vaccination...”

MIKE:

A few weeks ago, Berejiklian herself floated the prospect when she announced that the state might consider lifting some of its lockdown restrictions at the end of August, when the state reached a level of 50% vaccination.

Archival Tape -- Gladys Berejiklian:

“If we increase the vaccination rates during August, it gives us much more options, many more options, for the 29th of August, so the more people that get vaccinated…”

MIKE:

And I think that was a hint that she recognised that the state had lost control of Delta and would likely be in lockdown for months and months if we tried to get back to zero cases.

So that announcement has been seen in some quarters as a rejection of the national cabinet plan to suppress the virus, and it sparked a really significant debate about the future course of the pandemic in New South Wales, and consequently because it's spreading out of New South Wales, in the rest of Australia.

RUBY:

So, Mike, it seems like what we have then is this tension between the way that we've been dealing with Covid-19 for the past 18 months, which is eliminating outbreaks, getting back to zero every time, and this other way of looking at it, which would essentially be to meet the virus with vaccination. And implicit in that model, I suppose, is the idea that the virus would still exist in Australia, would still circulate. We're no longer trying to eliminate it. We would just be mitigating its effects through vaccination.

MIKE:

Yep. That's a very good summary of the position. That's exactly what it looks like.

But of course, we've got to remember here the plan, the modelling from the Doherty Institute, and others, has always accepted that at some stage we would have to live with a degree of community transition.

But that was predicated on us having 70, 80 (or more) percent of the population protected through vaccination. And of course, we're nowhere near that yet and we likely won't be for some months yet.

So it's possible that the Berejiklian government has just brought forward what was always going to happen.

We're always going to have community transmission at some stage. The New South Wales government, through, dare I say, it's rather inept handling of this outbreak, has brought that reality forward from probably early next year to effectively right now.

RUBY:

We’ll be back in a moment.
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RUBY:

Mike, we're talking about the New South Wales strategy for dealing with this current outbreak. It seems like the outbreak itself is getting worse despite what is now a very long lockdown. We heard recently from the New South Wales Premier, Gladys Berejiklian, that there was this plan to perhaps start easing restrictions when vaccination numbers reached about 50% of the population. Can you tell me what we know about why that announcement was made, what might be underpinning Gladys Berejiklian’s decision making there?

MIKE:

Well, of course, what Berejiklian herself has always insisted throughout this business is that her government's response accorded with medical advice. But last Tuesday, her chief medical officer completely busted that myth.

Archival Tape -- Gladys Berejiklian:

“And can I just begin by thanking Dr. Lyons and Dr. Chant and the minister for attending today…”

MIKE:

In evidence before a New South Wales parliamentary enquiry into the handling of Covid-19, Kerry Chant disclosed that she hadn't provided any advice to the government about when the state's lockdown might be eased.

Archival Tape -- Dr. Kerry Chant:

“I can't speak for the Premier...but certainly I'm very committed to the issues around getting our vaccine coverage up, but very much recognise that we need that 70% before we have too much of a discussion about what easing restrictions look like.”

MIKE:

So, you know, that tacitly contradicted the premier's hopeful assertion that that would start to emerge at 50%.

Archival Tape -- Dr. Kerry Chant:

“I haven't given any time to think about areas we would ease. What I'm concerned about is the numbers of cases that are currently occurring are too high and we need to see those numbers decline.”

MIKE:

In a very circumspect way, she sort of threw the Premier under the bus there, it was absolutely clear that the Chief Health Officer was not on the same page as the Premier was on this.

And the New South Wales Health Minister, Brad Hazzard, who appeared with Chant before the committee, to answer questions about the handling of the outbreak, suggested that Berejiklian’s comments were actually only meant to boost public morale and maybe get vaccination up.

Archival Tape -- Brad Hazzard:

“Oh, okay. Look, I think it's fair to say that the Premier is trying to give a sense of hope to the community and trying to drive up also vaccinations...”

MIKE:

But it looks like there's another factor here and that's the influence of the New South Wales Treasurer, Dominic Perottet. There have been reports and ministerial sources have told me that he had been arguing in cabinet against extension of the lockdown, saying that the economic consequences are too significant, and that the state actually needs to accept community transmission.

RUBY:

OK, so there is then quite a lot of disagreement, even within the New South Wales government, over this 50% target. What about amongst the states? Because 50% is out of step with what the national cabinet agreed to the plan that was agreed upon. So how have the other states responded to this?

MIKE:

Well, you're absolutely right.

After Berejiklian made the announcement about the 50% target, various other state leaders quickly jumped in to tell her not too subtly, that she must consult the national cabinet about any move to deviate from the, you know, agreed strategy to contain Covid-19.

And the federal government's also been critical, I mean, Scott Morrison, who we should remember was at one stage, you know, dead against lockdowns, saying that lockdowns were very damaging and should be a last resort; he's announced as part of his four phase plan to ease restrictions and get us back to normal life that 70% to 80% of the adult population would need to be fully vaccinated.

Archival Tape -- Scott Morrison:

“There is not an alternative to the lockdown in New South Wales to get this under control. There is no other magic bullet that is going to do that. There is no vaccine solution that's going to do that.”

MIKE:

So after all of this pressure, it now seems Berejiklian is backtracking, you know last week she repeated the need to stick to 70-80% vaccine targets and said that the restrictions in Sydney might not ease significantly until November.

Archival Tape -- Gladys Berejiklian:

“It's not going to be freedom all around till it's 70% double doses at least. And then 80% is when we learn to live with Covid. But having said that, I think all of us have to come to terms with living with Covid means...”

RUBY:

So where does all of this leave us, Mike? is it realistic for us to continue to try and eliminate the Delta variant, particularly in New South Wales, or do you think that we need to be having this conversation about vaccination rates and when we might be able to open up and allow some transmission to occur amongst a vaccinated population?

MIKE:

Well, let me let me start by saying I'm no epidemiologist, but the politics of this seem to be becoming clearer, and that is that the New South Wales government seems to have given up on getting back to Covid zero.

Other states have not. And because there is leakage of the virus out of New South Wales, that's making it harder for the other states. So there's this growing political tension.

At the actual health level. Some experts I spoke to suggested it might still be possible, even in New South Wales, if we locked down much harder and implemented other measures to stop the spread and get back to zero.

Others I spoke to suggest the horse has already bolted. But what they're all agreed on, what all the health experts agree on, is that even if we can't get back to zero, there should be much tougher things happening in New South Wales to at least limit the spread.

And the big suggestion there is rapid antigen testing everywhere, essentially, amongst essential workers. Others are, you know, wider and proper use of face masks, also eye shields for essential workers, a better definition of who is essential. You know, supermarket staff, for example, are pretty essential. We should be getting vaccines into them as a priority. And then, of course, clear and consistent messaging, which is the thing that's most notably lacking in New South Wales at the moment.

And I think it's starting to dawn on people that, you know, because the government did not go early, and has not gone hard enough, we're going to be in this for months and months to come. And furthermore, not only have we put the populace of New South Wales in it, but it's increasingly apparent now that we're putting the other states in it as well, because there is leakage across state borders, because the Delta variant is just so, so hard to control. It's really quite depressing.

RUBY:

Mmm, Mike, thank you so much for your time.

MIKE:

My pleasure.
[Advertisement]

RUBY:

Also in the news today,

Melbourne’s lockdown has been extended for an extra two weeks, with additional restrictions.

The state government announced on Monday that a 9pm curfew would be established and playgrounds would be closed.

The lockdown restrictions will be in place until at least September 2.

And in Afghanistan, the Taliban has declared the war over after its forces entered the capital, Kabul, and took over the city's presidential palace. The country’s President had fled just hours earlier.

More than 60 countries have called for the safe departure of Afghans and foreigners, as thousands of people attempting to leave the country remain stranded at the airport in Kabul.

I’m Ruby Jones, this is 7am. See ya tomorrow.

NSW is currently experiencing its worst outbreak of Covid-19 since the start of the pandemic. With case numbers continuing to rise, the government has slowly acknowledged it’s losing control.

Unlike the rest of the country, it now appears that NSW is abandoning its intention of eliminating the virus and reaching zero cases of community transmission, instead relying more heavily on vaccinations.

Today, national correspondent for The Saturday Paper Mike Seccombe on the NSW strategy to deal with the virus and what it might mean for the rest of the nation.

Guest: National correspondent for The Saturday Paper, Mike Seccombe

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7am is a daily show from The Monthly and The Saturday Paper. It’s produced by Elle Marsh, Michelle Macklem, Kara Jensen-Mackinnon and Anu Hasbold.

Our senior producer is Ruby Schwartz and our technical producer is Atticus Bastow.

Brian Campeau mixes the show. Our editor is Osman Faruqi. Erik Jensen is our editor-in-chief.

Our theme music is by Ned Beckley and Josh Hogan of Envelope Audio.


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525: NSW abandons Covid Zero