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Is this week a turning point for ‘Yes’?

Oct 6, 2023 •

While the “Yes” camp has been losing support in the Voice to Parliament referendum campaign, polls show it’s making a comeback and has even flipped some outspoken “No” voters. So, what’s behind the change, and will the “No” camp be able to maintain its lead?

Today, Rachel Withers on how Voice supporters are convincing voters and what’s in store for the campaign’s final week.

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Is this week a turning point for ‘Yes’?

1071 • Oct 6, 2023

Is this week a turning point for ‘Yes’?

[Theme Music Starts]

ANGE:

From Schwartz Media, I’m Ange McCormack. This is 7am.

It’s just over a week before Australia votes in the historic Voice to Parliament referendum.

While the “Yes” camp have been losing support in the polls throughout the campaign, this week, they’ve made a comeback, and even flipped some outspoken “No” voters to a “Yes”.

So, what’s behind the change, and will the “No” camp be able to maintain its lead?

Today, contributing editor to The Monthly, Rachel Withers, on how Voice supporters are convincing voters, and what’s in store for the campaign’s final week.

It’s Friday, October 6th.

[Theme Music Ends]

ANGE:

Rachel, pretty much since the referendum on the Voice was announced, we've seen a downward trend in support for the “Yes” vote, but now that's turning around. What are the polls saying?

RACHEL:

Well, this week, the Guardian Essential Poll showed some good news for The Voice. The first piece of good news, probably in some months. There was a poll on Tuesday that showed the number of people intending to vote yes has risen two points to 43%. The last poll was 41. But that is still trailing those intending to vote “No” on 49%, which was down two points. But when you dig a little bit deeper into the numbers, 13% characterise themselves as soft “Yes”. And 7% say soft “No”. Meaning they're open to persuasion. And there's still 8% who haven't decided at all. And that makes up a bloc of about 28% of people, according to the polls, who could still have their mind changed, who could still be “Yes” or “No”. And that's about 5 million people. So there is enough to swing this in there. And the ‘Yes’ campaign is hoping that that momentum will continue.

ANGE:

Do we know what's behind that change and bump in poll numbers?

RACHEL:

Well, the prime minister was on AM this week and he said that usually people get on board once they understand what is being proposed.

Audio excerpt – Anthony Albanese:

“When people have those one on one conversations with people about what the question is, when I myself have pointed out to people, sat down with people and asked them to read the question, people who are either undecided or soft ‘No’ voters declare, yeah, that's fair enough. This is the right thing to do.”

RACHEL:

Beyond that, we've seen some big sporting and music stars throw their support behind the Voice. We had the co-captain of the Penrith Panthers, Nathan Cleary, who on Sunday led one of the greatest grand final comebacks in NRL history. The following day he offered a clear endorsement of The Voice in a video saying “No” voice, “No” choice.

Audio excerpt – Nathan Cleary:

“No Voice, No Choice. Come on, Australia, vote yes.”

RACHEL:

Midnight Oil stepped up their advocacy producing and funding a radio ad set to their hit song Power and the Passion.

Audio excerpt – Peter Garrett:

“Peter Garrett Here from The Oils, as you've probably guessed, we're voting yes in the referendum. We've been singing about this stuff for years. We love Aus deeply. We think it's important. Of course, your votes are totally up to you, but don't get sucked in by all the bullshit scare campaigns.”

RACHEL:

And yes, 23 also launched a pretty striking new TV ad highlighting infant mortality rates, employment and life expectancy for Indigenous Australians.

Audio excerpt – TV Ad:

“What if I told you that our infant mortality rate is twice as high as non-Indigenous babies? That they'll grow up half as likely to find employment and will face a life expectancy that's eight years less than the rest of the country. A “No” vote means no progress.”

RACHEL:

And the “Yes” side are pushing hard to counteract the “No” campaigns. If you don't know, vote no message by saying if you don't know. Find out on that message. We saw a video go viral this week from Yorta Yorta rapper Briggs.

Audio excerpt – Girl 1:

“So I have read something online about just the nature of democracy in general.”

Audio excerpt – Girl 2:

“Yes, because it's patronising to Indigenous people. And I would hate to patronise an Indigenous person.”

Audio excerpt – Adam Briggs:

“Okay, So it doesn't go far enough, but then it also goes too far...because democracy?”

Audio excerpt – Girl 1:

“No.”

Audio excerpt – Adam Briggs:

“Have you Googled it? The Voice, the proposal of the referendum. Have you Googled it?”

Audio excerpt – Girl 2:

“You know what, I have not had heaps of time. I'm sorry. Yeah, just…”

Audio excerpt – Adam Briggs:

“Busy.”

Audio excerpt – Girl 1:

“Yeah…Pretty much.”

Audio excerpt – Adam Briggs:

“Life.”

Audio excerpt – Girl 1:

“Yeah.”

RACHEL:

It remains to be seen whether all this will be enough to counter the months of misinformation we have seen.

ANGE:

And I guess a core task of either side is to flip the voters right for the “Yes” camp to convince “No” voters and vice versa. And this week, some “No” voters did publicly change their mind and move to the side. Right.

RACHEL:

Yeah. So there's this section of people who call themselves progressive “No” voters. It's led by the Black Sovereignty Movement and Senator Lidia Thorpe, who is really leading that argument. And they've been publicly backing a “No” vote because they say the Voice doesn't go far enough and that you can't unpick colonial wrongdoing with the colonial system. They also say that they want stronger action before a voice, and that means treaty before the Voice. But this week, a couple of prominent black sovereign activists said they switched sides. Tarneen Onus Brown said she'd gone from a hard “No” to a “Yes”. She said she was motivated to change because the racist “No” campaign is dangerous.

Audio excerpt – Tarneen Onus Browne:

“I have seen lots of misinformation and I've seen neo-Nazis organising on the streets of Melbourne about trans people, about Aboriginal people, about migrants. And I think that it's really scary to see them organising and they have been spreading lots of misinformation and I'm really afraid of what I know it could look like.”

RACHEL:

She said that the debate had gotten so ugly and dangerous and allowed racism to thrive and she had fears for what a “No” victory could lead to.

Audio excerpt – Tarneen Onus Browne:

“I think that the racist ‘No’ campaign is the one that's caused damage. So Peter Dutton and Pauline Hanson's campaign have done so much damage to First Nations people around the country. The values of the progressive ‘No’. Is about how do we get treaty and how do we make substantive change.”

RACHEL:

Lidia Thorpe herself is still voting no. But as Victoria currently has narrow majority support for “No”, any shifts in the Black Sovereignty Movement, which is based in Victoria, really could be significant.

So with gains like this in the “Yes” camp, even if they're small, it suggests the referendum is going to be a little bit closer than we might have thought. No matter which way it goes. So the “No” side might not be feeling as comfortable as they might have been even a week or so ago. And this week the “No” side has had their own troubles to deal with.

ANGE:

Coming up after the break - how the division within the “No” campaign has deepend.

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ANGE:

So, Rachel, the “No” side of the referendum is still ahead in the polls. How have they been campaigning this week to try and maintain that lead?

RACHEL:

Well, the tactic of sowing fear, confusion of doubt has been working really well thus far for now. So they are doubling down on that. The two main sticking points of their campaign are that the Voice is divisive and that the Indigenous community is divided over it. And those messages do appear to be cutting through and they are repeated all the time.

But while the “No” camp talks a lot about division, that side of the debate isn't always the picture of unity. Different “No” leaders seem to have different ideas of what should happen next. Opposition Leader Peter Dutton has floated the idea of another referendum on purely symbolic recognition of Indigenous Australians, an idea that was not backed by his shadow Minister for Indigenous Australians, Jacinta Price. Leading “No” campaign of Warren Mundine is against the Voice but backs the idea of treaties, which is something most of the conservative “No” campaign points to as something to be wary of. But Mundine actually made headlines this week because of the division within his own family. His daughter Garigarra Riley-Mundine spoke out about how she thinks her dad's position on the Voice is morally wrong and the things that her father is currently saying go against the way she was raised, which was all about making things better for the next generation.

Audio excerpt – Garigarra Riley-Mundine:

“It's really hard to hear the things that he's saying. I do get emotional about it because for me, that's not the man that I grew up with.”

RACHEL:

And she also spoke about some of the racism in the “No” campaign and said that she couldn't imagine that it wasn't hurting her father, who keeps saying that it's not.

Audio excerpt – Garigarra Riley-Mundine:

“And I feel like the people that he's now sided with and is now working with are not people that are younger Warren would have worked with. And I, I struggle to put these two people together.”

ANGE:

And Rachel, what about this line that Indigenous elders, the quote unquote, authentic Indigenous Australians from Central Australia don't want the Voice. How is the “Yes” camp addressing that argument?

RACHEL:

Yeah, well, it's an argument that the “No” campaign has been able to prosecute really well, mainly using Jacinta Price and Warren Mundine as spokespeople and a significant portion of voters of it convinced that the Indigenous community doesn't necessarily want this, even though it's about 80% according to polls.

Audio excerpt – Malarndirri McCarthy:

“you know, just only last week PK, hundreds and hundreds of people came out to vote. First Nations people across North East Arnhem Land, the Tiwi Islands. You know, I was at Milingimbi, we had people in the central desert region all coming out to say yes. And I voted yes because I see this as a really important moment in our country's history.”

RACHEL:

So Labor Senator Malarndirri McCarthy is embarking on a bit of a media blitz to dispel some of that misinformation. She's someone who is seen as authentic and compelling according to campaign research, and she is from Central Australia. So she began her campaign this week appearing on Sky News on Monday and also on Q&A where she spoke quite passionately about the Voice.

Audio excerpt – Malarndirri McCarthy:

“John Howard as Prime Minister intervened so dramatically into the Northern Territory in 2007. People have forever remain traumatised by so many aspects of that piece of legislation, but no one was asked. No one was asked from the Northern Territory, certainly no Aboriginal or Torres Strait Islander person as to whether this would work for them. I was a local member for Arnhem Land in the Northern Territory. It was the most disempowering moment of my life, not only as a politician but as a Yanyuwa woman standing in that Parliament knowing that I could do nothing. So this is an opportunity. Australians, our fellow Australians. Our people want to have that voice enshrined in the Constitution.”

RACHEL:

Meanwhile, the “No” campaign has pushed another distraction, with Jacinta Price saying we don't need a voice and we need to audit the money that we already spend on Indigenous affairs, implying that we spend too much and that it's being wasted. The thing is the Coalition government already did do a number of audits in this area. They did 22 in the years they were in office between 2013 and 2022. So this idea from Price is completely disingenuous and based on a lie when she claimed that we haven't done this before and the other side is fighting back on this move as Professor Megan Davis, who was one of the architects of the Uluru statement, said on social media, The audit response is status quo, which is exactly what "No" seeks to maintain.

ANGE:

And Rachel, as the polls narrow, it means that the outcome could be closer than some people think. And so the next week before polling day is really critical. What do you think we're going to see in the race to the finish line from both sides?

RACHEL:

To be honest, I think we're going to see a lot more of the same. Only turbo charged. The “Yes” camp keeps dropping these endorsement videos and sharing messages from high profile figures. But the Prime Minister has said it's going to be all about those one on one conversations. And the “Yes” campaign has thousands of volunteers and they're planning to staff every polling booth in the country, whereas it's been reported that a lot of Liberal members and staff have declined to put their efforts to the “No” campaign. But I shudder to think what further lies and misinformation we're going to get from the “No” camp instead of volunteers. Peter Dutton said the Prime Minister was being divisive by refusing to change the words of the question because former Qantas CEO Alan Joyce told him not to. Which is just ludicrous. The words were decided by the working group made up of constitutional experts and Indigenous leaders. But he's just starting to say whatever pops into his head.

And on Thursday morning, we saw former Prime Minister Tony Abbott pop up on RN breakfast and make some rather assimilationist points about the need for Indigenous Australians to be integrated into mainstream society.

Audio excerpt – Tony Abbott:

“Aboriginal people are fine Australians and they should be encouraged to integrate into the mainstream of our society.”

Audio excerpt – Patricia Karvelas (ABC):

“I just want to interrupt. When you say...I just want to challenge that…”

Audio excerpt – Tony Abbott:

“In the end we should all be Australians together.”

RACHEL:

Clive Palmer has also appeared out of the woodwork and he said he'll be spending millions of dollars on ads against the Voice. Whether that money will actually materialise or whether it will be a waste of money from Clive. We'll have to wait and see. But there isn't much time left for official advertising to rollout. There's a media blackout on referendum ads on TV and radio from the end of Wednesday.

So yes, next week will be critical. Polling dates are already open for early voters and we've seen close to a million turn out in just the first week alone. Those probably weren't the undecided voters, though it's those unsure, uncertain, soft “Yes”, soft “No” who might find out more or who might not. Who will really decide this referendum. And some of them might make that decision on polling day in the booth with the piece of paper in front of them. So whichever side of the campaign can cut through to that type of voter in the next week will be the winner.

ANGE:

Rachel, thanks so much for your time.

RACHEL:

Thanks, Ange.

ANGE:

And, next week on 7am, we’re presenting a very special series… The Fight for a Voice.

In this series, Yorta Yorta journalist Daniel James will explore why this referendum is happening…

Audio excerpt – Megan Davis:

“The Voice will really be able to make those representations so that Australians can see the difference between what The Voice says is a priority, and what bureaucracy, and government, and Parliament say is a priority.”

ANGE:

What the arguments are…

Audio excerpt – Lidia Thorpe:

“Treaty is what will truly unite this country and allow this country to mature. The country doesn’t know who it is.”

ANGE:

And spend time with the people who have put their lives into the campaigns.

Audio excerpt – Mick Gooda:

“You can’t be wrong if you’re right. And you don’t stop fighting because you’re making people uncomfortable. You just keep fighting.”

ANGE:

Listen in from Monday, on 7am.

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[Theme Music Starts]

ANGE:

Also in the news today…

Federal Police are investigating a video sent to Indigenous Senator Lidia Thorpe showing a neo-Nazi burning the Aboriginal flag and making threats against her.

The video shows a man in a balaclava claiming to be from neo-Nazi group Warriors for Convict Resistance reading a statement from his phone - endorsing white Australia, making racist statements about First Nations people and performing a Nazi salute.

And

Cooler weather across NSW has brought relief for firefighters, as crews assess damage from a major bushfire on the state’s south coast.

Meanwhile in Victoria, flooding continues to threaten communities in the state’s east, after days of heavy rain that followed multiple bushfires.

7am is a daily show from The Monthly and The Saturday Paper.

It’s produced by Kara Jensen-Mackinnon, Zoltan Fecso, Cheyne Anderson, Yeo Choong, and Sam Loy.

Our senior producer is Chris Dengate. Our technical producer is Atticus Bastow.

Our editor is Scott Mitchell. Sarah McVeigh is our head of audio.

Erik Jensen is our editor-in-chief.

Mixing by Andy Elston, Travis Evans, and Atticus Bastow.

Our theme music is by Ned Beckley and Josh Hogan of Envelope Audio.

I’m Ange McCormack, this is 7am. We’ll be back next week with our special series - The fight for a Voice.

[Theme Music Ends]

Australia will vote in the historic Voice to Parliament referendum in just over a week.

While the “Yes” camp has lost support throughout the campaign, polls show it’s making a comeback and has even flipped some outspoken “No” voters.

So, what’s behind the change, and will the “No” camp be able to maintain its lead?

Today, contributing writer for The Monthly Rachel Withers on how Voice supporters are convincing voters and what’s in store for the campaign’s final week.

Guest: Contributing writer for The Monthly, Rachel Withers.

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7am is a daily show from The Monthly and The Saturday Paper.

It’s produced by Kara Jensen-Mackinnon, Zoltan Fecso, Cheyne Anderson, and Yeo Choong.

Our senior producer is Chris Dengate. Our technical producer is Atticus Bastow.

Our editor is Scott Mitchell. Sarah McVeigh is our head of audio. Erik Jensen is our editor-in-chief.

Mixing by Andy Elston, Travis Evans, and Atticus Bastow.

Our theme music is by Ned Beckley and Josh Hogan of Envelope Audio.


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