Audio excerpt – Anthony Albanese:

“Well thank you very much to Mr President and First Lady Dr Biden. I must say I only have one regret about tonight, which is I’m not quite sure how I top this for date night with Jodie…at any time, anywhere in the future. It’s all downhill from here my darling.”

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ANGE:

From Schwartz Media, I’m Ange McCormack. This is 7am.

This week, Anthony Albanese was given the highest honour a guest of the US President can receive, a state dinner – attended by powerbrokers from Washington and Hollywood.

But while the PM was riding high in the US, back home, his government is polling at its lowest since their election.

So, is it all downhill from here?

Today, columnist for The Saturday Paper Paul Bongiorno, on why Labor is losing popularity, and what they’ll need to do to win it back.

It’s Friday, October 27th.

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ANGE:

Paul. For the first time since the election last year, support for Labor may have slipped behind the Coalition in the federal polls. What's going on?

PAUL:

Well, what's going on is a Roy Morgan poll this week, the first taken since the referendum. It had the Coalition ahead of Labor for the first time since the election of the Albanese government. Morgan put Labor on 49.5%, two-party preferred and the Coalition on 50.5%. It's hardly as if the Coalition has established a commanding lead. It is basically neck and neck between the major parties, but that in itself is turning on its head. What we've really been seeing for most of the first half of the Albanese Government's term.

It's clear that the cause was the Voice. The Voice, and we've discussed this before. It wasn't meant to be political, but it became politicised. It became Labor versus the Coalition as soon as it lost bipartisan support. However, the Morgan results suggest that Dutton could be on to something of a winner here as a political strategy. It might be cynical, but it's successful. And of course one of the senior Liberals, Michaelia Cash, well, she admitted exactly that this week. “It wasn't no to Aborigines, it wasn't no to a voice, it was no to Anthony Albanese”, she said. And that was in response to a statement put out by Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander leaders that the national rejection of the Voice was shameful.

ANGE:

Right. So the Opposition might be feeling buoyed by the fact that opposing the Voice has led them to gaining popularity, not losing it. What shape is the Opposition in to capitalise on that and actually turn a small change in the polls into something bigger?

PAUL:

Well, that's the question and the challenge confronting them. It's going to be much harder. Of course you can't exactly say that the way people voted in a referendum is the way they're going to vote at a general election. And we do have to remember that the Coalition has about 20 seats out of government. So to get back into government, it's got to win back those teal seats, the blue ribbon Liberal seats that went till at the last election and it's got to get swings in some of the seats they lost to Labor back to them, especially in Western Australia.

So the big question is how will the coalition convince all of those "No" voters to vote yes to them? There's going to have to be more than a strategy of just saying no. And look, Ange, while the Voice was a defeat for Labor in a way, I mean Anthony Albanese and the Government certainly nailed their colours to that mast. One Cabinet minister told me the Prime Minister has emerged from the referendum as a conviction politician. While Dutton has cemented himself as the opposite, someone who's an opportunist and a very negative one at that. The Cabinet minister said he's done nothing to reposition himself or the Liberals. On the issues that helped defeat the Morrison government.

ANGE:

And it's easy to point to the Voice as the reason why Labor has lost some ground. But Anthony Albanese always said during the campaign that they could walk and chew gum at the same time that they were still running the country during the referendum. So what else has been going on that could be rubbing voters the wrong way?

PAUL:

Well, there is absolutely no doubt that the cost of living was front of mind as the campaign went on and as voters saw the erosion of their purchasing power, they began to think that the government was not taking enough notice. And of course, the inflation dragon, while it looks like it's being tamed, the latest figures this week show the annualised figure at 5.4%. Now that's lower than it was earlier this year, So hopefully it sounds like the worst is behind us. But of course, it still means that prices are growing faster than the Reserve Bank is prepared to accept.

Audio excerpt – Michelle Bullock:

“So as I'm sure you're all aware, the Reserve Bank board decided earlier this month to leave the cash rate at 4.1% and it's been there since the most recent rate rise in June.”

PAUL:

The new governor of the Reserve Bank, Michelle Bullock, in her first major speech this week, signalled she's a hawk on bringing inflation closer to the 2 to 3% target.

Audio excerpt – Michelle Bullock:

“Our focus does remain on bringing inflation back to target within a reasonable time frame while keeping employment growing.”

PAUL:

And now the markets are expecting another rate hike. On Melbourne Cup Day, the odds are favouring a hike rather than to leave interest rates where they are. And people might have to go out and try and pick a winner on the day to cope with it all.

And you can add to all of that - in fact you could say overarching all of that - is the conflict of the Middle East. At one level, of course, it's immediately putting pressure on world oil prices, but it's also an issue at the personal level that's being felt very deeply by a lot of Australians. And so the four day visit by the Prime Minister to the United States this week did come at a really significant time, a time of crossroads for him in this term of government.

ANGE:

Coming up after the break – What Anthony Albanese and Joe Biden spoke about, during a global crisis…

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Audio excerpt – Joe Biden:

“Please join me in a toast: to our partnership, our mateship, and the future that we’ll create together. Cheers.”

ANGE:

Paul, Anthony Albanese arrived in Washington this week with some heavy political baggage and in the middle of a global crisis. What exactly did the Prime Minister want to get out of this trip?

PAUL:

You know Ange, the optics of this visit were quite interesting. But of course, it's always a good look for the Prime Minister of Australia to be standing beside the president of the United States on the lawns outside the White House, where the issues of the world and of our region were discussed.

Audio excerpt – Joe Biden:

“Over the past few weeks and for many months before we've seen each other, we've seen our alliance grow more critical than ever, and we need to make it continue to make this important progress. And our discussions today, we've done just that.”

PAUL:

Should be remembered. This wasn't just an ordinary visit by a Prime Minister to Washington. This was at the highest level. This was an official state visit. And as an official state visit, Albanese got bells and whistles treatment, including an official state dinner. These are given pretty rarely to us visiting Australian prime ministers, maybe once a term, if they're lucky. He was supposed to address a joint sitting of the Congress, but the Congress was in disarray so he couldn't get around to doing that. And he and his partner Jodie, had a private dinner at the White House with the Bidens. But it has to be said that the hospitality of all this pomp and ceremony was completely overshadowed by the conflict in Gaza and Israel.

Audio excerpt – Joe Biden:

“Before I get to the Progress Australia and the United States have made today, I want to say just a very few words about the situation in the Middle East, the anger, the hurt, the sense of outrage.”

PAUL:

So the seriousness of the situation did make this visit even more important for Albanese. He said on his arrival in the US capital, the visit comes at a turbulent time for the world, almost an understatement. And with Biden and Albanese able to talk in person about the global security situation, it made the Opposition's criticism of the trip that the Prime Minister was spending too much time overseas talking to foreign leaders. They dubbed him Airbus Albo. Well, Ange, I've got to say that sounds puerile in light of the weight of the trip and certainly out of step with the seriousness confronting Australia and the international community.

ANGE:

But was this mostly an exercise in optics? You know is this visit all about Anthony Albanese getting to stand next to the US President on the world stage? Or did he achieve anything that will actually make a difference to the Government's agenda back home?

PAUL:

Well Ange, I did have to say to you, this is one of the most significant trips to Washington I've seen from an Australian Prime Minister in a long time. It wasn't only about picture opportunities and there were major announcements out of it.

Audio excerpt – Anthony Albanese:

“Today, President Biden and I discussed the progress being made on Australia's acquisition of nuclear powered, conventionally armed submarines.”

PAUL:

They went to the strategic challenges confronting Australia, especially the effort that both the Biden administration and the Australian Government are putting into getting the Congress to pass the enabling legislation for the AUKUS nuclear submarines. Now, these submarines aren't only about, if you like, military hardware, they're also about what's called a new Australia US defence, science and technology industry. There will be things manufactured and built in Australia using American advanced technology that we haven't been able to do before.

Audio excerpt – Joe Biden:

“We're pioneering new advancements and innovations deepening our cooperation. It feels like biotechnology, advanced batteries, quantum computing, cybersecurity and a lot more.”

PAUL:

There are also big announcements of investments in Australia. Microsoft is going to invest $5 billion to build a cyber shield, working with intelligence agencies in Australia to identify, prevent and respond to cyber threats and also through our technical and further education colleges, train Australians in the latest information technology.

Audio excerpt – Anthony Albanese:

“Australia and the US have a strong and growing partnership in new technology, from medical research to A.I..”

PAUL:

And importantly, the Biden administration announced it will advance the critical minerals and clean energy transformation compact between our two nations. Now, this is important for the government domestically because it will help drive the energy transition and deliver price relief for consumers.

Audio excerpt – Anthony Albanese:

“Today, we agreed new measures under the compact to support our energy transition, including the establishment of an Australia and US Clean Energy Industry Council comprised of business and public finance leaders to advise government on clean energy industry, development and cooperation.”

PAUL:

We are now seeing the United States and Australia taking very seriously and wanting to accelerate the transition, the dependence away from fossil fuels and that includes, of course, oil to renewable energy. We've really been dragging our feet in this country since the Howard Government, when federally we haven't done enough to make the transition. And this, of course, is an important new angle on how we deal with the cost of living pressures, especially coming from our energy sources.

ANGE:

And Paul, you've seen a lot of tumultuous times in Australian politics. At the beginning of this year, though, it would have seemed kind of impossible for this government to find itself trailing slightly to Peter Dutton's coalition in the polls. Yet here we are. Are we at a crossroads for this term of government?

PAUL:

Well Ange, I do think that the next six months are going to be critical for the Albanese Government. It has to regain momentum. It has to show that it has answers for the challenges confronting Australia and Australians. And in that I notice that a leading economist, Warren Hogan, said that probably it's time for Treasurer Jim Chalmers to take the Australian voter into his confidence and point out that even if interest rates do rise, there will be gain for our pain in the longer term because galloping inflation hits everybody very hard. That's going to be, of course, a very difficult message to sell and to convince hard pressed voters. But we do have to deal with the real world.

We do have an Albanese maybe someone who isn't charismatic, but he certainly is a very seasoned politician. And I'm I'm sure that he's learnt a lot from his experience of, you know, handling big issues in the past year and seeing if you get it wrong, you pay a very big price.

ANGE:

Paul, thanks so much for your time today.

PAUL:

Thank you Ange, bye.

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ANGE:

Also in the news today,

Two people have died and at least 16 homes have been destroyed by bushfires in the Tara region in Queensland.

Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk said firefighters’ work was far from over, and was hoping for rain from forecasted storms in the South East.

And

Health groups are urging the New South Wales government to introduce pill testing services ahead of the summer festival season, warning a failure to do so will ‘put lives at risk’.

New South Wales Premier Chris Minns said there would be no plans for drug checking before the state’s drug summit in 2024.

7am is a daily show from The Monthly and The Saturday Paper.

It’s produced by Kara Jensen-Mackinnon, Zoltan Fecso, Cheyne Anderson, Yeo Choong, and Sam Loy.

Our senior producer is Chris Dengate. Our technical producer is Atticus Bastow.

Our editor is Scott Mitchell. Sarah McVeigh is our head of audio.

Erik Jensen is our editor-in-chief.

Mixing by Andy Elston, Travis Evans, and Atticus Bastow.

Our theme music is by Ned Beckley and Josh Hogan of Envelope Audio.

I’m Ange McCormack, this is 7am. We’ll be back next week.

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